March 1st 2025
Rutger McGroatry
C/LW
Drafted: 2022 round 1 #14 overall by Winnipeg Jets Acquired by the Pens for Brayden Yager (14th overall by the Pens in 2023)
Current Team: WBS Penguins AHL
Current Age: 20 Years old
McGroatry has struggled to start the year. He initially made the Penguins out of training camp and managed to play 3 games posting 0 points. He was sent down to get more ice time and develop further.
He had 56 points in 36 games last year at the U of M in the NCAA. The expectations are high for Rutger considering the penguins traded their best prospect in Yager for him.
Based on his production McGroatry was expected to have superstar potential. He is currently in his first professional season which can be attributed to his slow start this year. He had 3 points in his first 10 AHL games but has since improved. He has 9 points in his last 7 games. He might be a 1-2 years away from being NHL ready. So far he has shown constant improvement as the season progressed. He’s starting to feel more comfortable. Although his production is not as good as it was in Michigan he’s still producing at a decent pace. Currently projected to be a top 6 forward. He’s still young and has room to progress even further.
It will be interesting to see if he spends another year in WBS next season or makes the jump to the NHL considering the Penguins current struggles. He will most likely be called up to get some more NHL experience throughout the 2025-26 season if he does not make the team.
“McGroarty shines in the offensive zone, displaying elite goal-scoring and playmaking ability. He’s a slick puck handler”
NHL certainty: 8.0
Emil Pieniniemi
Defenceman
Drafted: 2023 round 3 #91 overall by Pittsburgh Penguins
Current Team: Kingston Frontenacs OHL
Current Age: 19 Years old
Pieniniemi made the jump to North America after playing last season in Liiga (Finland’s highest league). He currently has 54 points in 51 games
There is a lot to be excited for when looking at his current production in the OHL. Above a point per game as a defenseman is really solid. He has made a smooth transition from European ice to North American ice.
A big mobile 2 way defenseman, Pieniniemi is excellent at running the PP and brings physicality and defensive play to the table. His shots from the point are very effective at giving him a scoring chance or creating an easy tip. Pieniniemi is an excellent passer but don’t expect him to come down the ice with speed on the rush. He uses his hockey IQ to generate scoring chances for his teammates.
After leading Finland to a silver medal at the 2025 WJC ast their top defenseman. Pieniniemi is a physical player and his offensive game has developed nicely this season.
He is expected to make the jump and play pro next season. He’s expected to be NHL ready in 1-2 years.
I am very excited about this prospect. He seems to be a physical Dman something the pens could use right now. Dubas seems to have found a gem in the 3rd round. Based on his production he is expected to play in the top 4 as a #2 or 3.
“can log big minutes and contributing on both special teams. He’s a safeguard in the neutral zone, where he pinches aggressively and gaps up early, guiding opponents towards the boards before engaging physically.”
NHL certainty: 6.5
Villie Koivunen
C/W
Drafted: 2021 round 2 #51 overall by Carolina Hurricanes (Acquired via Guentzel trade)
Current Team: WBS Penguins AHL
Current Age: 21 Years old
Villie Koivunen is a 6″ 172lbs center and winger. Koivunen was acquired as part of the Jake Guentzel deal last year. He is the best prospect included in that deal.
He had 56pts in 59gp in Liiga (Finland’s highest level) last year while being only 20 years old and also put up 13pts in 12 playoff games. He made the move to North America this year playing in the AHL.
Credited as a player who makes his teammates better, Koivunen has all the tools to become as successful NHL player. He is currently projected to be a top 6 forward. Koivunenen might need a couple more years before being NHL ready.
Koivunen is currently leading all AHL rookies in points with 46. Koivunen made an easy transition to North American ice and has produced at an elite rate after having an excellent season in Finland last year. His consistent production at different levels is a nice sign.
Based on his production he is projected to be a 1st line player. He has not yet played his first NHL game but it is almost certain that he will get his chance next season.
NHL Certainty 7.5
Tanner Howe
LW
Drafted: 2024 round 2 #46 overall by Pittsburgh Penguins
Current Team: Calgary Hitmen WHL
Current Age: 19 Years old
Tanner Howe is a 5″11 183lbs left wing who loves to use his body to play through contact. He creates offensive zone entries and maintains possession in puck battles along the boards. He loves being in the slot and scoring greasy goals. He reminds me of Patrick Hornqvist who loved to be in the slot.
Tanner Howe is another great find by Dubas. Drafted in the 2nd round of the 2024 draft. He is exactly the type of player the penguins need.
I expect him to become a solid middle 6 type player that will be hard to play against despite his smaller built. He possesses a great 2 way game to completement his grittiness.
Many people doubted Howe’s abilities by saying that he was a Connor Bedard product. Howe still had a very productive season once Bedard went to the NHL posting 77pts in 68gp in 2023-24. Howe was traded from the Regina Pats (WHL) to the Calgary Hitmen (WHL) this season and has increased his production from 7 points in 10 games with Regina to 27 points in 28 games with Cgy.
His production has been declining which is worrisome. He is currently under a point per game. Howe had a very disappointing WJC tournament posting 1 point in 5 games.
Howe is a project. He has shown that he has the ability to play with high level players and produce. He might be a good complementary piece along side a superstar.
If I could compare him to a current NHL player it would be a less productive Brad Marchand/Patrick Hornqvist type player. A pest to play against that will try to get under the opponents skins and has a strong presence in the slot.
Unfortunately due to his current production I don’t expect Howe to be more than a 3rd line player with potential to hop up to the 2nd line whenever someone gets injured. He will need to spend a few years in the AHL before being NHL ready. He still has 1 year of CHL eligibility left. I expect him to play in the WHL for the 2025-26 season and then make the jump to WBS and play around 2-3 years before being NHL ready.
NHL Certainty 8.0
Tristan Borz
C/LW
Drafted: 2021 round 2 #58 overall by Pittsburgh Penguins
Current Team: WBS Penguins AHL
Current Age: 22 Years old
Tristan Borz is a 6″ 183lbs center and left winger. Borz is a playmaker who stays away from the slot. He would work well with a centerman who can take care of the transition game.
Borz is in his first professional season after finishing his college career at the University of Denver after an amazing season of being almost a point per game. He already has 15pts in 22gp in the AHL during his first pro season which is great. He seems to be adapting well to the pro game.
Borz is projected to be a 2nd line player. His game is well rounded and has a great shot but seems to be more focused on setting his teammates up rather than scoring. He would need to become more aggressive and attack the slot more in order to take the next step to the NHL.
Borz might need a couple more years to become NHL ready. I believe he can be a decent player at the NHL level. A middle 6 type player. I expect him to work well with a 2way playmaking center. I do not expect him to get called up this season. He still needs to develop his game further. Borz might be a couple of years away from playing in the NHL.
NHL Certainty 7.0
Harrison Burnicke
Defenceman
Drafted: 2024 round 2 #44 overall by Pittsburgh Penguins
Current Team: Kamloops Blazers WHL
Current Age: 18 Years old
Harrison Brunicke is a 6″3 203lbs Defenseman right shot. The combination of his size and skill are hard to find. He is also shooting on the right side which is a premium in the NHL. Brunicke is another great find by Dubas. Drafted in the 2nd round considering that Brunicke could have been drafted as high as in the mid 1st round.
His playstyle can be described as “do-it-all blue-liner”. What prevented him from being a 1st rounder was his offensive game. He had 12pts in 15gp before getting injured. He only had 21 points in 49gp last year. Kamloops did not have a 20 goal scorer or point per game player last year which contributed to Brunicke’s lower production.
Harrison has already surpassed his point total from last year despite having missed half the season so far due to injury. He currently has 25 points in 31 games played.
Brunicke was expected to make Team Canada for the 2025 World Juniors but got injured. His production this year has been amazing. He was projected to be a top 4 Dman when he got drafted but it showing potential of having the offensive skill to be a 1st paring D in the NHL.
Brunicke has a lot of potential to become a solid blueliner at the NHL level. Defensemen usually take longer to develop and considering his injury this year he might be NHL ready in 3-4 years. He might need to spend a couple of years in the AHL before making the jump to the NHL. If he is able to build on his current production I would expect great things out of Brunicke. In my opinion he is the 2nd best prospect after McGroarty that the pens have right now.
NHL Certainty 7.5
Vasily Ponomarev
C/LW
Drafted: 2024 round 2 #44 overall by Pittsburgh Penguins
Current Team: WBS Penguins AHL
Current Age: 22 Years old
Vasily Ponomarev is a 6″ 181lbs center who can play wing as well. He is the most NHL ready prospect in the Penguins system. Acquired in the Jake Guentzel trade, Pono has played 5 NHL games already scoring 1 goal and 1 assist in 2 games last year with Carolina. He was called up by the Pens earlier this season but saw around 9 minutes of time on ice.
Ponomarev is most likely going to be a 3rd line player, bottom 6 type. He was praised by Carolina’s coach Rob Brind’Amour on his 2way game.
He was expected to make the Hurricanes out of training camp last year but got hurt resulting in starting the year in the AHL. I expect the Pens to call him up again throughout the season although I would like to see him play more than 9 minutes per game.
He has won 55.6% of his faceoffs at the NHL level and has 2 blocks, 1 hit and a 2-1 ratio of takeaways and giveaways. These are decent numbers on a very small sample size. If he can continue to be a decent 2 way player he will be the perfect 3rd line shutdown type center that the pens have been trying to get since Nick Bonino left.
NHL Certainty 7.5
Cruz Lucius
C/LW
Drafted: 2022 round 4 #124 overall by Carolina Hurricanes (acquired in the Guentzel trade)
Current Team: Arizona State Univ NCAA
Current Age: 20 Years old
Cruz Lucius is a 6″ 172lbs Right winger who was acquired by the Penguins as part of the Jake Guentzel deal. He has a high hockey IQ and a solid defensive game to complement his underrated shooting ability. He has been described as a dual threat player capable of scoring and playmaking.
Lucius has recently transferred from the University of Wisconsin to ASU but suffered an injury during camp kept him out until Jan 9th.
Lucius has been around a point per game player throughout his college career prior to this year. His production has regressed and that could be due to several factors such as recovering from injury and adapting to a new system. He has 8 points in 15 games played this year which is way below his previous 2 years. He had back to back 34 point season in 2022-23 and 2023-24.
Lucius was drafted in the 4th round and considering that only 10.9% of 4th rounders play over 100 NHL games. He does not come with high expectations meaning that he has no pressure to develop quickly. He can take his time and develop into the player he needs to be to reach the NHL.
He is projected to be a middle 6 forward but if he can reach another level if he can become a top 6 type player. What he needs to improve to reach the next level is get faster and stronger. He needs to add some weight to his frame which will only help him at the pro level.
I expect him to play another year in college before turning pro. He is only 20 years old and will turn 21 at the end of the season. He will most likely take the same path as Bryant Rust who played 4 years in college before turning pro and split 2 years between the AHL and NHL before being a full time Penguin. Keep in mind that Cruz produced more than Rust in college. His injury did set back his development as he missed over half the season.
Lucius is still young and will have the opportunity to bounce back. I don’t see him making the jump to pro this offseason unless his production drastically increases.
NHL Certainty 7.0
Sergei Murashov
Goaltender
Drafted: 2022 round 4 #118 overall by Pittsburgh Penguins
Current Team: ECHL Wheeling Nailers
Current Age: 20 Years old
Sergei Murashov is 6″ 168lbs goaltender who was drafted in the 4th round by the Penguins in the 2022 NHL draft.
He is probably the best prospect the Penguins have other than McGroarty in terms of raw talent. I am very excited about Murashov.
The penguins have a strong history of drafting goaltenders in the past years as they drafted: Matt Murray, Filip Gustavsson, Tristan Jarry and Joel Blomqvist.
Murashov has excellent numbers throughout his career dating back to juniors:
.934 Sv% and 2.04 GAA in the MHL with a record of 73-30-12,
.928 SV% and 1.71 GAA in the KHL with a record of 4-1-2, a
.934 SV% and 1.99 GAA in the AHL with a 6-0-0 record and a
.927 SV% and 2.25 GAA in the ECHL with a record of 17-6-1
He is currently playing in the ECHL to get more ice time as the Penguins goalie depth chart is stacked. Nedeljkovic and Blomqvist are playing in the NHL, Jarry was sent down to WBS and Filip Larsson has been amazing this season (.927 SV% and a 2.39 GAA) which left Murashov as the 3rd string goalie.
Playing in the ECHL is not a negative, the landscape of the ECHL has changed a lot in recent years and is starting to become a development league.
Larsson had a solid season in the SHL last year and emerged out of nowhere. The Penguins signed him to a 2 year deal last offseason.
It’s hard to say when Murashov will get to be a main stay in WBS. The Penguins would have to make room in their depth chart in order for him to get called up. It is still uncertain what will happen with Jarry and if the Penguins will opt to buy him out this offseason. Even if Jarry gets bought out, Murashov will still be behind Ned, Blomqvist and Larsson.
Murashov’s excellent transition to North American hockey make it harder to predict when he will be NHL ready. He has shown elite potential and is looking like a franchise goalie that the Penguins have been needing ever since Fleury left.
Goalies usually tend to take longer to develop and with Blomqvist being regarded as the future #1 goalie for the pens. I don’t expect Murashov to get a chance at the NHL any time soon. Murashov also beat Vasilevskiy’s +1 draft year statistics.
The potential is there, the pens will need to figure out a way to get him up the depth chart to help him develop even further. He could be playing in the NHL sooner than later. It all depends if he’ll get an opportunity with everyone a head of him.
NHL Certainty 7.0
Mikhail Ilyin
LW/RW
Current Team: Severstal Cherepovets KHL
Current Age: 20 Years old
Mikhail Ilyan played 21 games in the KHL during his draft year posting 2 points. The Penguins drafted him in the 5th round. He played all of the 2023-24 season in the KHL as an 18 year old.
Currently in his 3rd season in the KHL, Ilyan had 27 points in 57 games played before being sent down to the MHL where he’s posted 4 points in 2 games.
His current production is indicating 1st line potential. A great find by the Penguins.
The biggest issue regarding this prospect is the Russian factor and if he will be able to transition to the NHL ice surface. Several Russian players have tried to make the jump from the KHL to the NHL and have been unable to. Plotnikov tried coming to the NHL 2015-16 and played 32 games only posting 2 points before being traded to Arizona and only posting 1 point in 13 games played there.
In terms of playstyle passing and puck handling are his strengths but his biggest issue is skating. He is agile but his power and efficiency will need heavily improve if he wants to jump to the next level.
If he does manage to successfully jump over to the NHL might have found a really good player in the later rounds. For now Ilyan’s production is indicating 1st line potential. He still has a few more years left of developing. He would need to make the jump to North America to see how he’ll adapt. He might need to play a couple of seasons in the AHL before being NHL ready.
NHL Certainty 4.0
Melvin Fernström
RW
Current Team: Örebro HK SHL
Current Age: 19 Years old
Fernström is an interesting prospect. He is really good in the offensive zone and posses a great shot. He will turn 19 in March.
Fernström can be described as a sniper. He doesn’t have the hardest shot but is able to find the right angles to score. He reads the play well and positions himself in a good spot to be able to get a shot off. He has amazing offensive positioning.
Fernström is a long term project. He has amazing offensive qualities but his biggest issue is his skating. He relies too much on his teammates to generate scoring chances and is rarely involved in building up plays.
He does not have a good transition game and struggles defensively. His strides will need to improve if he wants to get to the next level. He does not have a great motor which is preventing him from having an impact without the puck. He also grew since being drafted this summer from 6″ to 6″2.
Fernström needs to improve his 2 way game and motor which might take some time. It is crucial for his development to become effective without having the puck on his stick or being in the offensive zone.
Overall Fernström has a lot of work left before being close to an NHL player. He has amazing tools but needs to become better overall as a player. He needs to develop his defensive zone play if he ever intends to play in the NHL.
He is currently playing in the SHL and has 8 goals 9 assists for 17 points in 43 games. He dominated in the J20 league (Sweden’s junior league) posting 18 points in 12 games.
He will need 5+ years to develop. He has natural goal scoring ability but has to develop his overall game.
NHL Certainty 4.0
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